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We recently received an email from a reporter asking whether we were concerned that there was too much good news. We quickly pointed out that bear markets do not typically occur when good news makes investors nervous.
Rather, bear markets typically occur when investors ignore an increasing volume of bad news. Disregarding or rationalizing deteriorating fundamentals tends to result in higher than expected volatility. In fact, investors have continued to allocate to fixed income despite that bond market fundamentals have been deteriorating and bonds have been underperforming for more than two years see Chart 1.
When comparing asset class returns since mid-June when inflation expectations troughed , only bonds have provided negative total return. Inflation risks continue to increase, but fixed-income investors enthusiasm continues unabated. Enthusiasm for an asset class in the face of deteriorating fundamentals seems a classic setup for a significant bear market in bonds. Marginal borrowers tend to have financing problems when global liquidity dries up. Global liquidity is ample, but is indeed starting to recede.
Accordingly, weaker companies and countries are beginning to have the funding problems that accompany the withdrawal of liquidity from the global financial markets. The potential funding issues faced by Turkey and others seem quite normal within this context. Investors have become increasingly worried whether emerging markets can meet their debt obligations. Some of this fear is normal, but some seems to be looking for risk in all the wrong places.
Chart 4 shows that emerging market debt spreads versus US Treasuries have increased, but hardly suggest contagion is imminent. Investors generally ignored the warning signs during the lates that emerging markets were starting to have funding problems. The result was calamity, and debt spreads severely widened. Investors today talk frequently of emerging market contagion, yet broad emerging market debt markets seem under control.
The contrast between investor fear and market-related data is even more pronounced in Chart 5, which shows the CDS spreads for China and the US. Despite all the hoopla regarding trade barriers, etc. We are not suggesting that China is a better credit than is the US, but investors again seem to be looking for risk in all the wrong places.
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Looking For Value In All The Wrong Places. jessefelder July 11, A version of this post first appeared in The Felder Report Premium. Bill Miller and others have recently argued that the real mistake value investors are making today is not including the most popular stocks in the market in their portfolios. I would argue just the opposite. Back to Blog Home Looking for Answers in All the Wrong Places. Author: Bob Kellmen Category: Uncategorized As biblical counselors, we offer the same hope Paul offered the believers in Colosse – Christ in you, the hope of glory! Waylon Jennings - Lookin' For Love lyrics. Lookin' For Love by Waylon Jennings. Lookin' for love. I've spent a lifetime looking for you. Single bars and good time lovers, never true. I was looking for love in all the wrong places. Looking for love in too many faces. Searching your eyes, looking for traces.